Does Iran want war? After latest Israel attack, here’s what may come next

Iran’s nonstop onslaught connected Israel this week has erstwhile again raised fears of a wider warfare successful nan Middle East — 1 that could now straight impact 2 of nan region’s astir well-armed nations.

Israel and nan United States person warned of “consequences” for Iran aft it fired astatine slightest 180 ballistic missiles astatine Israel. The barrage was mostly intercepted by Israel’s immense aerial defence strategy and U.S. naval destroyers.

It remains unclear what those consequences will be. But Iran has said immoderate consequence from Israel would beryllium met pinch “stronger and much powerful” retaliation successful kind.

That raises further questions of wherever nan tit-for-tat leads — and if Iran is prepared for what happens if its adjacent onslaught connected Israel really gets done and hits an Israeli organization centre.

“They should expect a very fierce response, not conscionable from Israel but from nan United States arsenic well. And Iran knows that,” said Hagar Chemali, a counterterrorism master and erstwhile White House National Security Council head for Lebanon and Syria.

Iran has agelong backed nan various militant groups presently fighting pinch Israel: Hamas successful Gaza, Hezbollah successful Lebanon and much precocious nan Houthis successful Yemen, successful summation to various different proxies successful Syria and Iraq.

Many of those groups and others person been designated arsenic violent organizations by Canada, nan U.S. and different allies, arsenic person Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. All are opposed to Israel’s beingness successful nan Middle East.

Since Hamas’ deadly battle connected Israel connected Oct. 7, 2023, sparked by Israel’s subject violative successful Gaza, Iran has been supporting proxy attacks — for illustration Hezbollah’s cross-border rocket strikes and nan Houthis hitting ships successful nan Red Sea — that are successful solidarity pinch Hamas, while avoiding taking nonstop action against Israel itself.

But that backseat attack has go progressively difficult arsenic Israel targets Iranian assets successful nan region because of that proxy support, and wrong Iran itself.

In April, an Israeli onslaught deed nan Iranian consular compound successful Damascus, Syria, sidesplitting much than a twelve group including apical IRGC commandant Major General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy.

The onslaught led to Iran’s first-ever nonstop onslaught connected Israel later that aforesaid month, a barrage of drones and missiles that were either intercepted aliases grounded to scope their targets. A seven-year-old woman successful Israel was severely wounded by shrapnel, and different civilians sustained insignificant injuries.

Since then, Israel has only gotten bolder. In July, an airstrike successful nan bosom of Tehran successful July killed Hamas’ governmental leader Ismail Haniyeh.

“The Israelis person fundamentally said to Iran, ‘listen, we don’t want to play this game. We see you nan mothership (to these proxy groups),'” said Alex Vatenka, head of nan Iran programme astatine nan Middle East Institute successful Washington.

“Iran correct now is cornered, essentially.”

Back-to-back wide explosions of physics devices successful Lebanon past period killed hundreds, including Hezbollah fighters. Lebanese officials and aggregate U.S. media reports citing American officials opportunity nan attacks were an cognition carried retired by Israel’s Mossad intelligence work and nan Israeli military.

Last weekend, an airstrike connected Hezbollah’s office successful Beirut killed nan group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah — 1 of nan astir powerful figures successful Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and U.S. interests successful nan Middle East. More Hezbollah commanders person been killed since then.

Iran vowed revenge, which appeared to travel connected Tuesday.

The Pentagon said Tuesday’s onslaught connected Israel was “twice nan size” of April’s barrage and progressive much precocious ballistic missiles that are harder to intercept.

According to nan U.S. Office of nan Director of National Intelligence, Iran is equipped pinch nan largest number of ballistic missiles successful nan Middle East.

Those missiles present warheads containing either accepted explosives aliases perchance biological, chemic aliases atomic munitions complete varying distances and speeds, depending connected nan rocket type.

Estimations of those ranges vary. The Arms Control Association, a Washington-based non-governmental organization, says Iran’s ballistic missiles person a scope up to 1,000 km, but said different missiles nether improvement tin scope targets up to 2,500 km away. Iranian authorities media claims those longer-range missiles are already available.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa successful nan 1990s that forbade nan improvement and usage of atomic weapons.

But Iran’s intelligence curate has warned that stance could alteration if it was “cornered,” and location are fears wrong nan world organization that Iran could still usage its atomic programme to nutrient specified a limb comparatively quickly.

Israel is besides wide believed to person atomic weapons, but location is nary actual grounds and nan state has not acknowledged aliases denied their existence.

Vatenka says Iran’s aerial unit is reasonably anemic pinch an outdated fleet, leaving its rocket programme and location proxies arsenic its 2 main ways to onslaught Israel.

But those wrong Iran opportunity nan state has agelong focused connected building up its defences since nan Iran-Iraq War of nan 1980s, which devastated Iranian nine and saw wide usage of chemic warfare by nan Iraqis nether Saddam Hussein.

“The astir important point is to past successful this region,” said Hamidreza Gholamzadeh, caput wide of nan Asian Mayors Forum and head of nan Tehran-based House of Diplomacy deliberation tank.

“Iran is very good equipped pinch that and is fresh to protect this reddish line, this superior reddish statement of its information and stability.”

Gholamzadeh added nan Iran-Iraq War besides steeled nan Iranian group for nan anticipation of nonstop conflict pinch Israel.

“Even if this happens and immense damages are inflicted upon Iran, nan business would not beryllium worse than … that time,” he said. “And we survived that time.”

Iran itself has agelong enjoyed beneficial relationships pinch Russia and China successful associated guidance to U.S.-led occidental alliances. But wrong nan Middle East, it is comparatively isolated.

Vatenka said different Arab countries aren’t looking to broadside pinch non-state actors for illustration Hezbollah and Hamas that besides frighten their ain monarchies. And though Iran has supplied Russia pinch drones and different materials for Moscow’s warfare against Ukraine, Iran shouldn’t expect Russia to return nan favour.

“I really cannot constituent to a azygous state that I tin show you for judge now will travel to Iran’s aid,” he said. “Iran is successful galore ways alone.”

Iran’s caller president Masoud Pezeshkian connected Wednesday visited Qatar, a federation agelong positioned arsenic a mediator successful location disputes including ceasefire talks successful Gaza. But Gholamzadeh said Iran is focused connected ensuring Arab countries don’t support Israel successful nan adjacent shape of nan conflict and unit nan U.S. and different occidental friends to backmost off.

Despite nan Iranian regime’s anemic opinionated astatine location — seen astir precocious successful nan wide protests sparked by nan decease of Mahsa Amini — and economical struggles from crippling sanctions, Tuesday’s onslaught connected Israel was met pinch celebrations successful nan streets of Tehran.

Those rallies were fuelled by what Gholamzadeh said is nan Iranian people’s heavy hatred of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, and nationalist pridefulness that overwhelms immoderate home issues.

“There are galore group who are discontent pinch nan bad economy,” he said. “There are galore group who are against nan hijab. But they are superior successful defending their ain country.”

— pinch further files from nan Associated Press and Reuters